Now that his total is 30.5 on the road, we'll go the other way. We liked Jokic as a scorer in Games 1 and 2 when his prescribed point total was 27.5 at home. When Game 2 went over, it was due to that explosive 36-point Heat fourth quarter. The Nuggets shot 27.8% from three (another bad sign for Miami) in Game 3, while the Heat shot 31.4% from deep and 37% overall. It sounds simplistic, but shooting percentages will determine whether Game 4 goes over a lowered total. This goes back to the zig-zag element we've discussed throughout the playoffs, where the team that lost the last game actually gets more credit in the point spread for the next contest.Īs for the total, the natural inclination is to see a move downward by at least two possessions and play the over. Lining this game again at -3.5 despite an easy Nuggets win in Miami suggests some expectation for the Heat to play better coming off a loss. There's little to speak of when it comes to value in the point spread since the market has strongly focused on finding a larger separation than we might've expected. The closing line - and subsequent opening line for Game 4 - is just five points different from where the line stood through the early Denver-hosted portion of the NBA Finals. It was also a sign that big money didn't take too much from the Heat's Game 2 victory. The game-day move in the point spread from Nuggets -2.5 to -3.5 proved prescient Wednesday. The Game 4 point spread has remained the same, while the total has dropped. With the Nuggets wrestling home-court advantage back, the series price moved from shy of -300 to -800. The Heat are looking for answers after getting blown out in a game that went well under the total - the type of scoring pace that was supposed to help them. Game 4 goes Friday night in Miami, marking the lone single-day gap between contests in the NBA Finals.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |